Social inflation drives reserve adequacy and the ILS arbitrage book from the same litigation signals. This optimizer prices both — then funds the fiduciary duty first: not one dollar deploys to arbitrage until every reserve gap is topped up. Move the regime and watch the waterfall decide.
Per line: load = (excess severity + litigation×coef + verdict×coef) × venue weight × regime. Reserves compound the load over tail years. ILS edge = priced vs AFI-adjusted multiple. Top-ups fund before arbitrage, always.
Seven lines · loads, required reserves, adequacy, ILS mispricing edges, and the fiduciary-first allocation
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