Working papers and essays on what is actually moving insurance liabilities. No gating, no fluff, full sourcing. AIPX3 services all forms of reserves, and writes about all of the forces that move them.
Five working papers in development. Each publishes here as a full HTML article with a downloadable PDF. Request early access to any of them through the briefing form.
What AI genuinely changes in the reserving chain, what it does not, and why provenance, not prediction, is the hard problem in regulated actuarial work.
In development // Q3 2026Discount rates, inflation paths, and what happens to long-tail adequacy when the economic assumptions under your triangles quietly expire.
In development // Q3 2026Boats, homes, crops, and cargo in the same storm: why line-by-line reserving misses correlated tails, and how dependency-aware validation closes the gap.
In development // Q4 2026The speed gap between daily-moving risk signals and quarterly reserve governance, measured, and what continuous validation actually requires.
In development // Q4 2026Ransomware economics, AI-assisted intrusion, and why cyber reserves age in months while their review cycles run in years.
In development // Q1 2027Practitioner questions drive this library. If a reserve problem is keeping you up at night, propose it; serious questions get serious papers.
Propose a topic →Papers circulate to briefing contacts before they publish here.
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