Working papers and essays on what is actually moving insurance liabilities. No gating, no fluff, full sourcing. AIPX3 services all forms of reserves, and writes about all of the forces that move them.
These are not marketing pieces with a download wall. Every claim traces to a published source, every chart that uses carrier figures is labeled as sample platform output, and the analysis runs on the same engine the platform runs.
The point is to be useful to a chief actuary on a Tuesday, not to rank for a keyword. If a paper cannot be defended in a room with a rating analyst, it does not publish.
Five working papers in development. Each publishes here as a full HTML article with a downloadable PDF. Request early access to any of them through the briefing form.
What AI genuinely changes in the reserving chain, what it does not, and why provenance, not prediction, is the hard problem in regulated actuarial work.
In development // Q3 2026Discount rates, inflation paths, and what happens to long-tail adequacy when the economic assumptions under your triangles quietly expire.
In development // Q3 2026Boats, homes, crops, and cargo in the same storm: why line-by-line reserving misses correlated tails, and how dependency-aware validation closes the gap.
In development // Q4 2026The speed gap between daily-moving risk signals and quarterly reserve governance, measured, and what continuous validation actually requires.
In development // Q4 2026Ransomware economics, AI-assisted intrusion, and why cyber reserves age in months while their review cycles run in years.
In development // Q1 2027Practitioner questions drive this library. If a reserve problem is keeping you up at night, propose it; serious questions get serious papers.
Propose a topic →Reserve risk shows up in two speeds, so we publish at two. One catches what changed this week; the other explains the force underneath it.
A weekly systemic-risk bulletin across the full domain map: what moved, what lines it touches, and what to watch next. The fast lane, for staying ahead of the quarter.
Full working papers on the structural forces, with methodology and sourcing, for when a board needs the argument and not just the alert. The slow lane, built to be cited.
Papers circulate to briefing contacts before they publish here.
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