Paid-loss development, division sufficiency, IBNR loading, and the regulatory screen — every figure computed in your browser from the same inputs and formulas as the analytical workbook. Drag the social-inflation load and watch the whole chain recalculate.
Specialty casualty blended · AY 2019–2024 · cumulative paid, USD thousands · ultimate = latest paid × CDF · IBNR = max(ultimate − paid, 0)
Edit any CDF in the table and the ultimates, implied IBNR, and the sufficiency rollup below recalculate — the workbook needs a manual recalc cycle; here the chain is live.
60% chain-ladder / 40% Bornhuetter-Ferguson blend · social-inflation adjustment scales with the live verdict-index load
Loaded IBNR = base × (1 + load × tail sensitivity) · responds to the slider above
The regulatory views clear their thresholds. The platform's economic view does not. That gap is the finding.
Twelve ratios against NAIC unusual ranges · FY 2024
12-month projection · survival S(m) = e^(−mortality·m) · discount at the live 10-year rate · per 100,000 exposure